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During Spring Quarter 2008, the Program in Spatial Statistics and
Environmental Sciences (SSES) is organizing a series of events on the role
of statistics in climate change studies. These events will include formal
seminars, as well as weekly discussion group meetings, and will begin this
week. On Thursday (Apr 3rd), Dr. Mark Berliner will give a
seminar to kickoff the Quarter on Statistics and Climate Change. This
seminar will be co-sponsored by OSU's Climate, Water, and Carbon Program.
In addition, the first meeting of the weekly discussion and reading group
will be on Friday from noon-1PM in CH212. This week the group will focus on
statistical methods for historical temperature reconstruction, including the
well known 'hockey stick' debate, and will be led jointly by Statistics
graduate student Emily Kang and faculty member Tao Shi. Everyone is welcome
to attend both the seminar and discussion group meetings.
Below are key details on this week's seminar and the quarter-long weekly
discussion group. More information on the Quarter on Statistics and Climate
Change is available on the SSES Program's website --
http://www.stat.osu.edu/~sses/events_climate.html
--- WEEKLY DISCUSSION GROUP ---
DATES: Fridays, April 4, 2008 to May 23, 2008 (inclusive)
TIME: 12-1PM
LOCATION: Cockins Hall, Room CH 212
SCHEDULE: see http://www.stat.osu.edu/~sses/events_climate.html
--- KICKOFF SEMINAR ---
"Statistics and Climate Change"
Mark Berliner
Department of Statistics
The Ohio State University
DATE: Thursday, April 3, 2008
TIME: 3:30-4:30PM
LOCATION: 18th Avenue Building (EA), Room 170
ABSTRACT
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released its
Fourth Assessment Report claiming "Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising mean sea level.... Most of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations....Discernible human
influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming,
continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns."
The American Statistical Association has also recently released a statement
endorsing these conclusions of the IPCC. I review the development of
arguments underlying such claims; how these arguments relate to statistical
analysis and the treatment of uncertainty; and how statisticians can
contribute to the issues raised in climate change studies. I will also
present a recent example of a Bayesian approach to multi-model information
processing for developing climate forecasts.
This seminar is jointly sponsored by the Program in Spatial Statistics and
Environmental Sciences (http://www.stat.osu.edu/~sses) and the Climate,
Water, and Carbon Program (http://www.cwc.osu.edu).
Earth Sciences Professor Andrea Grottoli Discovers Coral Survival Strategy
Dr. Andrea Grottoli
Andrea Grottoli, an assistant professor in the School of Earth Sciences, has spent the last fourteen years studying coral and the ways they survive changing oceanic climates. Her discoveries, which have been published in the British journal Nature, show that certain species of coral survive stressful climatic conditions by exponentially increasing their rate of feeding. This survival strategy, which she calls “gorging,” has been the subject of her most recent research.
Corals, which are more properly called “polyps,” are tiny creatures related to sea anemones and jellyfish. Throughout its life span, a coral (or polyp) will feed on algae and secrete chemicals that encircle it with a stony cup of limestone that functions as a protective skeleton. The polyps divide as they grow and then form coral colonies that build on top of each other until they gradually form vast and intricate reefs.
Coral reefs are delicate ecosystems that are easily damaged by tropical storms, as well as certain diseases and predators, but the greatest threat by far is global climate change that may cause increases in sea temperatures. Corals are highly sensitive to the slightest variations in water temperatures, and when the ocean becomes too warm, corals turn white or “bleach” as a reaction to the climatic stress, and many die as a result of these changes.
A coral reef with substantial “bleaching”
Dr. Grottoli, whose recent research has focused on two particular types of coral, has discovered that Montipora capitata (rice) corals are able to survive water temperature changes and “bleaching” by increasing their feeding rate five-fold; porites compressa(finger) corals feed only at the normal rate, which puts their survival in question.
Grottoli's research focuses on the key role that nutrition—and the essential components of that nutrition—play in the recovery of damaged coral reefs. The strategy of gluttony that enables Montipora to survive long-term damage doesn't explain which elements in the feeding strategy give that coral the edge it needs to survive.
As Grottoli’s research showed, carbon is an essential factor.
“Corals get carbon in two ways,” she says, “either through photosynthesis by the algae kept inside their bodies, or by feeding on the zooplankton that comprise their diets.” The bottom line, Grottoli says, is that the photosynthetic carbon is used for metabolic demands and calcification, while the carbon gained from feeding is used for tissue growth.
“Without both forms [of carbon], the coral simply cannot fully recover,” she said.
Coral polyps ready to feed
The fact that certain types of coral can gorge, get the carbon and other nutrients they need, and then recover from long-term climatic damage is good news for Montipora (rice) corals and others like it. But Grottoli warns that other species that can’t develop a similar "gorge and heal" survival mechanism may die en masse, and she predicted that as much as 60 percent of the world’s coral reefs could be lost within the next 10 to 30 years, if the present rate of oceanic warming continues.
Grottoli says, “The problem is that now, with the planet’s climate warming, coral are living closer and closer to their thermal threshold, so it takes less of a warming event than it did before to cause a catastrophe.”
A healthy coral reef near Raja Ampat, West Papua, Indonesia
Research like that done by Grottoli is making new strides in understanding the life cycle of coral with the aim of helping to preserve these delicate creatures. By studying the stresses they endure and their methods of survival and recovery, this knowledge may one day lead to ways of helping the beautiful and intricate coral reefs of the world to remain healthy and vital.
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